In 2010, almost 50% of breast cancer sales were due to three branded targeted therapies. With a large unmet clinical need, further agents are required to increase survival and delay disease progression.

Unique breast cancer market share, sales forecasts by launched and Phase III products to 2017
A comprehensive and critical examination and scoring of 72 major breast cancer treatments
Comprehensive market assessment of therapeutic approaches, company share, portfolios and prospects

The changing competitive landscape

By 2017, Espicom forecasts a modest increase in the number of players in the market-place compared to 2010, with Roche, and GlaxoSmithKline to a lesser extent, triumphing with targeted therapies directed against the specific subset of BC patients with HER2-positive disease. AstraZeneca, Novartis and Pfizer will face widespread generic competition for their hormonal therapies, leading to a loss of market share. Similarly, Sanofi and Eli Lilly will face declining sales for their chemotherapies.

The market in 2010...

In recent years, more effective treatments have decreased mortality and improved survival rates, resulting in a longer duration of therapy for an increased patient population. In the US, five-year relative survival rates have improved from 63% in the early 1960s to 90% in recent years, while in England, rates for women diagnosed with BC in 2001-2006 reached 82%, compared to 52% 1971-1975. This report estimates that sales of leading brands achieved sales of US$12.7 billion in 2010, with growth due to expanding sales for a number of existing treatments rather than the launch of new products. Sales were split between chemotherapies, hormonal therapies and novel molecular targeted therapies, with the majority of these agents used in combination.

And 2017: how things might change Hormonal therapies

The aromatase inhibitors will suffer from patent expiries in all major markets by 2012, and the report expects significant generic competition and sales for this group to decline by over 92% from US$3.4 billion in 2010, to just US$259 million in 2017. With widespread generic versions of the leading selective oestrogen receptor modulator, tamoxifen, the overall market share of branded hormonal therapies will decline as sales fall from US$4 billion to US$1.4 billion, a drop of 65%. These declines will be tempered by the relative success of AstraZeneca's Faslodex.

Chemotherapies

By 2017, most chemotherapies will be available as generics. In addition to patent expirations for Sanofi's Taxotere (docetaxel) and Eli Lilly's Gemzar (gemcitabine) in 2009/2010, the US patent on Roche's Xeloda (capecitabine) will expire in 2013. As a direct result, sales will decrease by almost 40% from over US$2.4 billion in 2010 to around US$1.5 billion in 2017, with market share continuing to decline, from 19 to 12%. This general trend is mitigated somewhat by the newer chemotherapies, which are demonstrating sales growth and carving out market share due to their improved safety and efficacy compared to older more established agents.

Targeted therapies - moving beyond HER2

By 2017, Espicom estimates that a total of ten products will command a 77% market share, with the current therapies, Roche's Herceptin and Avastin, along with GSK's Tykerb/Tyverb, accounting for over 80% of these sales. Herceptin will continue as the clear market leader. But what about patients who are HER2 negative? There is an urgent need for more therapies and just a handful are likely to be launched by 2017:

Bayer's Nexavar is a multi-targeted kinase inhibitor already marketed for the treatment of renal cell carcinoma and hepatocellular carcinoma.
Eli Lilly's anti-VEGFr2 monoclonal antibody, ramucirumab, an angiogenesisinhibitor, may be able to pick up market share from Avastin if the company can demonstrate an improved survival advantage.
There has been considerable optimism over a novel class of agents, the PARP inhibitors, including Sanofi's iniparib, which is under development for triplenegative breast cancer. Nevertheless, doubt has been cast over the effectiveness of this class following the termination of the development of AstraZeneca's olaparib.

The report at a glance...

A comprehensive review of the market, disease incidence and growth
An evaluation of the current understanding of breast cancer
A comparison of the corporate and competitive landscape in 2010 and 2017 with market share data
Detailed analysis and sales forecasts to 2017 for current products
A detailed review of Phase III pipeline prospects with likelihood to launch and potential sales with forecasts to 2017
A comprehensive review of the novel and dynamic products currently in Phase II which could change the breast cancer treatment market in the longer term
Unique product assessment and scoring

The products featured in this report have been analysed in terms of:

Mode of action
Current approval and/or developmental status
Clinical data relating to the product's approved or development indications
Risks associated with the development of the product
Experience and expertise of the companies developing and/or marketing the product
Competition within the marketplace
Based on this assessment, each product has been awarded a Competitor Ratio Analysis Score relating to its overall competitiveness.

Executive Summary
Current Treatments
- Surgery
- Radiation Therapy
- Hormonal Therapy
- Current Products' Patent Exposure
- Chemotherapy
- Current Products' Patent Exposure
- Molecular Targeted Therapy
- Current Products' Patent Exposure
Market Analysis
- The Breast Cancer Market in 2010
- Targeted Therapies
- Hormonal Therapies
- Chemotherapies
- The Players
- The Breast Cancer Market in 2017
- Hormonal Therapies
- Chemotherapies
- Targeted Therapies
- The Players
Drug Growth Drivers and Dampeners
- Drug Growth Drivers
- Drug Growth Dampeners
Sales Forecasts (2010 Actual - 2017 Estimates)
Compe titive Analysis
- Rese arch and Development
- Research and Development Strategies
- Targeting ErbB
- Targeting VEGF
- Targeting PAR P
- Targeting IG F-1r
- Therapeutic Vaccines
- Research and Development Pipelines
- Background Information
- What is Breast Cancer?
- Risk Factors for Breast Cancer
- Stages of Breast Cancer
- Diagnosis and Screening
- Factors Influencing Survival
- Patients Statistics
- Worldwide Variation in Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality
- Breast Cancer Products
- Targeted The rapies
- Approved Products
- Avastin
- Herceptin
- Tykerb/Tyverb
- Phase III Products
- Afinitor
- Iniparib
- Neratinib
- Nexavar
- Omnitarg
- Ramucirumab
- Tovok
- Trastuzumab emtansine
- Votrient
- Phase II Products
- AE37
- AMG 386
- AZD8931
- Bavituximab
- BMS-690514
- BMS-754807
- Cabozantinib
- CDX-011
- Cixutumab
- Dalotuzumab
- Dinaciclib
- Dovitinib
- Entinostat
- Enzastaurin
- Erbitux
- Ganetespib
- AMG 479
- INCB7839
- Linifanib
- Mesupron
- MetMAb
- Motesanib
- NeuVax
- OPT-822
- PF-1367338
- Ridaforolimus
- SAR256212
- Sprycel
- Tarceva
- TSU-68
- Vandetanib
- Vectibix
- Veliparib
- Zolinza
- YM155
- Hormonal The rapies
- Approved Products
- Arimidex
- Aromasin
- Evista
- Fareston
- Faslodex
- Femara
- Nolvadex
- Zoladex
- Phase III Products
- Orazol
- Decapeptyl
- Zometa
- Phase II Products
- TAS-108
- Che motherapies
- Approved Products
- Abraxane
- Gemzar
- Halaven
- Ixempra
- Taxotere
- Xeloda
- Phase II Products
- Imetelstat
- LEP-ETU
- Tasisulam
- Telcyta
- Tesetaxel
- Thermodox
- Yondelis
Appendix
- Phase Transition Probability
- Glossary
- Acronyms
- Source Material
- Websites
- General Bibliography
- Product Bibliography
List of Tables
- Current Major Hormonal Therapies
- Major Patent Exposure of Leading Brands
- Major Patent Exposure of Leading Brands
- Major Patent Exposure of Leading Brands
- Breast Cancer Therapy Sales Forecasts (2010-2017)
- Competitor Ratio Analysis Total Scores
- Products under Phase III Development for Breast Cancer
- The Launch Landscape for Phase III Targeted Therapies
- Products under Phase II Development for Breast Cancer
- Products under Phase I Development for Breast Cancer
- TMN Classification of Breast Cancer
- Five-year Relative Survival Rates by Stage at Diagnosis (US)
- Five-year Relative Survival Rates by Tumour Size (US)
- Targeted Therapies for Breast Cancer
- Hormonal Therapies for Breast Cancer
- Chemotherapies for Breast Cancer
- Avastin Sales by Company (2009-2017)
- Avastin Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
- Herceptin Sales by Company (2009-2017)
- Herceptin Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
- Tykerb/Tyverb Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
- Afinitor Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
- Nexavar Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
- Omnitarg Sales by Indication (2013-2017)
- Ramucirumab Sales by Indication (2015-2017)
- LUX-Lung Trials
- Tovok Sales by Indication (2014-2017)
- Trastuzumab Emtansine Sales (2014-2017)
- Votrient Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
- Efficacy Results for Erlotinib+Gemcitabine in the Treatment of Pancreatic Cancer
- FDA ANDA Approvals for Anastrozole
- Arimidex Total Sales (2009-2017)
- FDA ANDA Approvals for Exemestane
- Aromasin Sales (2009-2017)
- Fareston Sales (2009-2017)
- Faslodex Sales (2009-2017)
- FDA ANDA Approvals for Letrozole
- Tentative ANDA Approvals for Letrozole
- Femara Sales by Company (2009-2017)
- Nolvadex Sales (2009-2017)
- Zoladex Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
- Abraxane Sales by Company (2009-2017)
- Abraxane Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
- FDA ANDA Approvals for Gemcitabine
- Tentative ANDA Approvals for Gemcitabine
- Gemzar Sales By Indication (2009-2017)
- Halaven Sales by Indication (2010-2017)
- Ixempra Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
- Efficacy of Docetaxel in the Treatment of NSCLC Patients Previously Treated with a Platinum-Based CT Regimen (Intent-to-Treat Analysis)
- FDA NDA Approvals
- Taxotere Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
- Xeloda Sales by Company (2009-2017)
- Xeloda Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
- Probability of Launch
List of Charts
- Breast Cancer Sales by Therapy Class (2010)
- Targeted Therapy Sales (2010)
- Hormonal Therapy Sales by Class (2010)
- Hormonal Therapy Sales (2010)
- Chemotherapy Sales (2010)
- Market Share of Breast Cancer Players by Sales (2010)
- Breast Cancer Sales by Therapy Class (2017)
- Hormonal Therapy Sales (2017)
- Chemotherapy Sales (2017)
- Targeted Therapy Sales (2017)
- Targeted Therapy Market Share by Sales (2017)
- Major Breast Cancer Players (2017)
- Market Share of Breast Cancer Players by Sales (2017)
- Breast Cancer Therapy Sales Forecasts (2010-2017)
- Targeted Therapy Sales (2010-2017)
- Hormonal Therapy Sales Forecasts (2010-2017)
- Chemotherapy Sales Forecasts (2010-2017)
- Incidence of Major Cancers Worldwide (2008)
- Mortality of Major Cancers Worldwide (2008)
- Worldwide Female Breast Cancer Incidence Rates by Region (2008)
- Worldwide Female Breast Cancer Mortality Rates by Region (2008)
- Female Breast Cancer Incidence Rates by EU Country (2008)
- Female Breast Cancer Mortality Rates by EU country (2008)
- Avastin Mode of Action
- Avastin Sales by Company (2009-2017)
- Avastin Sales by Indication (2010)
- Avastin Sales by Indication (2017)
- HER2 Signalling Pathway
- Herceptin Sales (2009-2017)
- Herceptin Sales by Indication (2017)
- Tykerb/Tyverb Total Sales (2009-2017)
- Tykerb Sales by Indication (2017)
- Afinitor Mode of Action
- Afinitor Sales (2009-2017)
- Nexavar's Dual Mode of Action
- Nexavar Sales (2009-2017)
- Nexavar Sales by Indication (2010)
- Nexavar Sales by Indication (2017)
- Omnitarg Sales (2013-2017)
- Ramucirumab Sales (2015-2017)
- Ramucirumab Sales by Indication (2017)
- Tovok Sales (2014-2017)
- HER2 Signalling Pathway
- Trastuzumab Emtansine Sales (2014-2017)
- Votrient Total Sales (2009-2017)
- Votrient Sales By Indication (2017)
- Upregulation of MET as a Response to Treatment
- Dovitinib Mode of Action
- Epigenetic Modification of a Histone
- Ganetespib Mode of Action
- MetMAb Mechanism of Action
- NeuVax Mode of Action
- Schematic of EGFr Inhibition in Tumourigenesis
- Vorinostat Mechanism of Action
- Arimidex Total Sales (2009-2017)
- Aromasin Sales (2009-2017)
- Evista - Invasive BC Incidence - STAR Trial
- Fareston Sales (2009-2017)
- Faslodex Sales (2009-2017)
- Femara Sales by Company (2009-2017)
- Nolvadex Sales (2009-2017)
- Zoladex Sales (2009-2017)
- Zoladex Sales By Indication (2010)
- Zoladex Sales By Indication (2017)
- Abraxane Sales by Company (2009-2017)
- Gemzar Sales (2009-2017)
- Halaven Sales (2010-2017)
- Ixempra Sales (2009-2017)
- TAX 317 Survival K_M Curves - Docetaxel 75mg/m2 vs Best Supportive Care
- TAX 320 Survival K_M Curves - Docetaxel 75mg/m2 vs Vinorelbine or Ifosfamide Control
- Taxotere Sales (2009-2017)
- Taxotere Sales by Indication (2010)
- Taxotere Sales by Indication (2017)
- Xeloda Sales (2009-2017)
- Xeloda Sales by Indication (2010)
- Xeloda Sales by Indication (2017)
- Canfosfamide Mode of Action

Pharmaceutical Market Research

Breast Cancer Drug Discoveries